(Bloomberg) -- Taiwan’s dollar just posted its worst first half of a year on record and analysts foresee more losses as overseas investors exit the island’s equities.
The currency, which has dropped about 7% this year, may extend declines to a two-year low of 30.3 to the US dollar by the end of September, according to Barclays Bank Plc. Credit Agricole CIB predicts it will weaken to 30 this quarter, versus Friday’s close of 29.755.
The bearish outlook is based on the $34 billion of foreign outflows from Taiwan equities this year, the most in emerging Asia outside China. Higher commodity prices and widening policy divergence due to Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes also threaten to roil the currency.
“We have a bearish outlook as portfolio outflows could remain a major drag,” said Lemon Zhang, a foreign-exchange strategist at Barclays in Singapore. “Headwinds from capital flows could continue from rising inflation fears, major economies’ tightening and higher US/developed-market yields.”
The Taiwan dollar isn’t the only currency coming under pressure in recent months. All of its emerging Asian peers are feeling the heat as the hawkish Fed lures capital toward the US and away from emerging markets.
While the Taiwan dollar appears to have formed a near-term bottom with support at its May low of 29.854 holding last month, there are reasons to believe further weakness lies ahead. Barclays predicts there may be outflows of about $8 billion in the coming months due to dividend repatriation by global funds.
Investors will be monitoring inflation data due Wednesday to see if any signs of acceleration prompt the central bank to become more hawkish. The monetary authority raised rates by a smaller-than-expected 0.125% last month as it tried to rein in inflation without exacerbating slowing growth.
“A defensive view is warranted in EM given the China slowdown, global shrinking of financial conditions and more cautious sentiment, and we therefore remain biased to a higher USD/TWD into the third quarter,” said Eddie Cheung, senior emerging markets strategist at Credit Agricole CIB in Hong Kong.
Here are the key Asian economic data due this week:
Monday, July 4: Australia home loans, building approvals and job advertisements
Tuesday, July 5: RBA policy decision, Philippine CPI, Japan labor cash earnings, China Caixin services PMI, South Korea CPI, Singapore retail sales, Thailand CPI
Wednesday, July 6: Taiwan CPI, Bank Negara Malaysia policy decision
Thursday, July 7: Australia trade balance, South Korea BoP current account balance
Friday, July 8: Japan trade and BoP current account balances, Taiwan trade balance, Malaysia industrial production
Air Canada planes sit on the tarmac at Pearson International Airport in Toronto on April 28, 2021.Nathan Denette/The Canadian Press
Air Canada announced last week that it was cancelling thousands of flights in July and August in an effort to quell what it said were “unprecedented strains” that the overwhelming resurgence of travel had placed on the airline industry.
The airline was already operating at just 80 per cent of prepandemic levels. The move prompted outrage from consumers and advocates, who say Air Canada should offer better compensation to the hundreds of thousands of passengers whose summer flights have now been cancelled.
Air Canada spokesman Peter Fitzpatrick said the airline believes the schedule changes announced last week will help stabilize the situation, but warned that it will take time.
Here’s what the cancellations mean for your travel plans.
How many flights will be cancelled?
More than 9,500 flights will be cancelled in July and August – or an average of 154 flights per day – as Air Canada looks to cut 15 per cent of its schedule, most of which will be to and from Toronto or Montreal.
Three routes from Montreal to Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Kelowna, B.C., will be temporarily suspended. Air Canada will also suspend its route from Toronto to Fort McMurray, Alta.
International flights will remain unaffected, in part because they are harder to rebook, Mr. Fitzpatrick said.
Some of the main issues for the airline relate to late-evening flights using single-aisle aircrafts, he said. Reducing evening flights, Mr. Fitzpatrick added, will allow Air Canada to improve start-up performance the next morning, help stabilize the airline’s schedule and aid in other areas such as baggage handling, catering and plane grooming.
Is Air Canada offering refunds and financial compensation?
Currently, Air Canada’s policy for delays and cancellations provides customers with the option of receiving a full refund no matter the reason in the event a flight is cancelled, delayed more than three hours or if a connection is added to an itinerary.
The airline also offers compensation – distinct from refunds – of between $400 and $1,000 either because of a cancellation or delay for travellers who arrive at their final destination three or more hours after their scheduled time of arrival for reasons deemed within Air Canada’s control, and unrelated to safety issues.
Cancellations because of reasons within Air Canada’s control include crew scheduling issues or when necessary equipment is unavailable. However, travellers who have had their flights cancelled because of safety problems such as maintenance issues, travel advisory updates, bad weather and sick crew members or passengers will not be eligible for compensation.
More protections for passengers are coming. Amendments to the Air Passenger Protection Regulations, which took force in 2019, will require airlines to provide refunds or alternative flights to passengers whose trips are cancelled or delayed by at least three hours for reasons outside the control of the carriers. They will go into effect on Sept. 8.
The changes allow customers to choose between a refund or another flight that leaves within 48 hours on the airline in question, or a partner airline, at no additional cost. Large carriers are required to put customers on competitors’ planes. But until then, passengers whose flights are cancelled or delayed by three hours or more for reasons the airline cannot control, including weather or closed borders, are not entitled to a refund, and the airline must rebook them on the next available flight.
How to check if your flight is affected
Air Canada’s flight-status page on its website allows passengers who have already booked a flight to see whether it has been cancelled up to one week ahead of time. Travellers with a reservation can enter their flight number or flight route and departure date into the search engine.
When you book a flight with Air Canada, the airline says you are also automatically enrolled to receive flight notifications, which can be reconfirmed when you check in. For further questions, travellers within Canada and the U.S. can call 1-888-247-2262 at any time.
What to do if your luggage gets lost
If you can’t find your luggage at the baggage claim, Air Canada says to contact your airline’s baggage-service agent upon arrival, who will ask for your contact information, a detailed description of your luggage and items, your baggage claim stubs and boarding passes.
That information will be used to help you create a WorldTracer incident report, which you can use on the WorldTracer website to update or review the status of your lost luggage. Air Canada advises anyone who doesn’t immediately create this incident report to call Air Canada’s Central Baggage Office at 1-888-689-2247 as soon as possible, at any time.
If your luggage isn’t found after three days, you’ll be asked to fill out a Baggage Tracing form, which can be found here.
If your baggage is lost, Air Canada will refund checked-baggage fees and offers interim reimbursements for “reasonable expenses that you’ve incurred for rentals or essential items.” You may request to be reimbursed here, as long as your claims are supported by receipts.
“Each delayed bag is costly for us to handle and deliver post-flight, so we are doubly incentivized to have bags arrive with the customers,” Air Canada said in an e-mailed statement.
All stores have marketing tactics to get you in the door — stylish mannequins, elaborate display windows, posters screaming about all the discounts you can find inside.
But some are far more subtle, so much so that chances are you've hardly ever noticed them. Picture your local grocery store, for example. What do you see when you first walk in?
Most likely: Flowers. Big, bright bouquets of fresh-cut blooms greet shoppers inside just about every major grocer, from Whole Foods to Kroger to innumerable New York City bodegas.
That's no coincidence — there's a strategic decision behind those flowers' placement.
"It is very, very simple," says Paco Underhill, the founder and CEO of behavioral research and consulting firm Envirosell. "If you can get someone's nose and saliva glands working, they become a much less disciplined shopper."
That's right: Flowers fire up the senses, getting you ready to spend. Sure, they're aesthetically pleasing. And as you get closer, your nose picks up on their aroma, which tells your brain "this place has good stuff."
"You're signaling freshness, you're signaling 'natural'... all the good things that make food good," said Ashwani Monga, a professor of marketing at Rutgers Business School.
"If I'm a grocery store then that's how I want you to see my store — logistically, if this person can manage fresh flowers and sell them, this person isn't going to sell stale food."
That psychological priming is just one way stores indirectly influence your behavior and encourage you to part more readily with your money. (Holiday music is another effective strategy.)
Psychologists call the effect misattribution — you're in a good mood and ready to shell out for the holiday season, for example, not fully realizing that it's because of the music and twinkly lights.
What makes flowers so effective is that they're a high-margin item. They may account for only 1% to 3% of total sales, but in 2019 stores reported an average gross margin of 47% on cut flowers, according to a report from the International Fresh Produce Association. In other words, that bouquet you bought for US$15 likely cost the store just $7.50. That's because most of the stems for sale in U.S. grocery stores are flown in from South America, where land and labor are much cheaper.
The grocery store flower scene has emerged over the past 30 years or so, says Becky Roberts, director of floral at the IFPA. As shoppers became more time-starved, grocery stores evolved to be more of a one-stop shop, with bank branches, coffee shops, post offices and, of course, florists.
COVID-19 lockdowns were especially lucrative for the cut flower industry.
"People had to come to supermarkets as one of the few places that they really could still come and shop," Roberts said. "They wanted things that could bring them a little joy, a little fun, a little happiness."
Inflation is taking its toll, of course, but Roberts said she expects floral sales to remain strong even as consumers rein in spending on non-essential items.
"You might not be able to afford a $200 dinner now, or to be able to take that road trip," she said. "But you still can go pick up a bunch of flowers and feel like, 'OK, I'm still treating myself.'"
A law outlawing any dealings with the Taliban, which charities complain is impeding their ability to help needy Afghans, could be adjusted by the federal government to give more flexibility to aid agencies.
International Development Minister Harjit Sajjan said the government is looking at making changes to the law to create “flexibility” to make humanitarian help easier.
But, in an interview with The Canadian Press, he insisted Canada would not lift the Taliban’s designation as a prescribed terrorist organization.
“We are looking at options on what we can do to create that flexibility that other countries have,” he said. “The U.S. currently can do more work than us, at least have the options to do more things there. We are looking at similar exemptions we can create as long as we can keep up the pressure on the Taliban, as it is a terrorist entity.”
A law listing the Taliban as a terrorist organization was passed in 2013, before the allies withdrew and the Taliban seized control of Kabul and formed a de facto government last year.
Under the anti-terrorist legislation, Canadians could face up to 10 years in prison if they, directly or indirectly, make available property or finances to the Taliban.
Canadian aid agencies working in Afghanistan complain the law is impeding their work because they cannot help anyone who may have official dealings with the Afghan government, including people paying rent or taxes.
They have also criticized Canada for not adjusting its regulations following a December 2021 UN Security Council resolution which said “humanitarian assistance and other activities that support basic human needs in Afghanistan” would not violate the council’s sanctions regime.
Giving evidence to a special parliamentary committee on Afghanistan earlier this year, Michael Messenger, president of World Vision Canada, said Canada was “out of step” with other countries, including the U.S., which have made changes to make humanitarian aid easier following the UN resolution.
Senator pleads for Canada not to put cap on number of Afghan refugees accepted
Senator pleads for Canada not to put cap on number of Afghan refugees accepted – Jun 2, 2022
Ten humanitarian organizations made a submission to the parliamentary committee calling on ministers to relax its laws so they could work on the ground in Afghanistan without fear of breaching Canada’s anti-terrorism laws.
In its official report last month, the committee recommended that the government “ensure that registered Canadian organizations have the clarity and assurances needed _ such as carve-outs or exemptions _ to deliver humanitarian assistance and meet basic needs in Afghanistan without fear of prosecution for violating Canada’s anti-terrorism laws.”
Sajjan said, despite the prohibitions on dealing with the Taliban, Canada had continued to give vast sums of aid to Afghanistan through agencies including the UN and Red Cross.
But he acknowledged the law, brought in before the Taliban formed the government, was preventing some aid work, including “development projects where you have to work through the government’s structure.”
He said Canada had pumped around $150 million into Afghanistan, including aid to help people following the recent earthquake that killed more than 1,000 people and left more than 1,500 injured.
The earthquake struck a remote region near the Pakistan border, damaging more than 10,000 homes, most of which are made from clay and mud. Immediately after the earthquake, the Taliban issued a call for help from the international community.
“The law has not prevented us from helping the Afghan people,” the international development minister said. “We can still help the Afghan people but we are still looking at the options of how to get the exemptions.”
Lauryn Oates, executive director of Canadian Women for Women in Afghanistan, said humanitarian groups were getting conflicting legal advice on what the rules say they can and cannot do in Afghanistan.
She said the anti-terrorism law was stopping Canadian aid workers paying local taxes, including on rent or salaries. But aid workers could face imprisonment in Afghanistan if they don’t pay taxes, under local laws.
The law is also making it harder to fund scholarships for Afghan women and girls at private universities and creating huge amounts of paperwork, she said. A scholarship can only now be granted if the university signs undertakings pledging that the money, even small sums, would not be used to pay tax.
Oates said she feared a law change could take years when aid is urgently needed in the impoverished country.
“We need an innovative, interim solution now,” she said. “Other countries have been able to come up with them and Canada is lagging behind.”
Chinese President Xi Jinping marked the 25th anniversary of Hong Kong's return with a speech Friday that emphasized Beijing's control over the former British colony under its vision of "one country, two systems," countering criticism the freedoms promised for the next quarter-century have been largely erased under Chinese rule.
Xi praised the city for overcoming "violent social unrest" — a reference to massive pro-democracy protests in 2019 that were followed by a Beijing-driven crackdown on dissent and shut down independent media, aligning Hong Kong more closely with stricter controls under China's ruling Communist Party.
The shift shocked many in the city of 7.4 million people that Britain returned to China in 1997 after running it as a colony for over a century. As part of the agreement, China agreed to allow Hong Kong to have its own government and legal system for 50 years.
In the ensuing years, Hong Kong activists pushed back against Chinese efforts to curtail freedoms in the city and made demands for fully democratic elections, drawing out hundreds of thousands of people for marches in the streets.
Officials and guests attend a flag-raising ceremony in Hong Kong's Golden Bauhinia Square on Friday to mark the 25th anniversary of the former British colony's return to Chinese rule. (Magnum Chan/The Associated Press)
For years, the anniversary of the July 1 handover was marked by an official ceremony in the morning and a protest march in the afternoon. Now, protesters have been silenced in what the Communist Party hails as restoring stability to the city.
On Friday, Xi said Beijing has "comprehensive jurisdiction" over Hong Kong, and Hong Kong should respect Chinese leadership, even as Beijing allows regions like Hong Kong and neighbouring Macao to maintain their capitalist system and a degree of autonomy.
Xi, centre, and his wife, Peng Liyuan, second from left, accompanied by Chief Executive John Lee, left, wave as they depart the West Kowloon Station of the Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Express Rail Link in Hong Kong on Friday. (Hong Kong Government Information Services/The Associated Press)
"After the return to the motherland, Hong Kong has overcome all kinds of challenges and moved forwards steadily," Xi said. "Regardless of whether it was the international financial crisis, the coronavirus pandemic or violent social unrest, nothing has stopped Hong Kong's progress."
'Push and pull' between competing visions
His speech represented the culmination of what scholar Jeff Wasserstrom has described as a push and pull between two competing visions of one country, two systems.
Many in Hong Kong "fought for a more robust understanding of the two systems, to have an idea that there's a very different lifestyle there," said Wasserstrom, a professor at the University of California, Irvine, and author of Vigil: Hong Kong on the Brink.
That view, at least for now, has lost out to the narrower one of the Communist Party, which is mainly interested in maintaining the economic advantages of Hong Kong's capitalist system, he said.
Hong Kong resident Grace Chan saw little reason to celebrate on Friday.
"It's been very difficult for Hong Kong people in recent years," she said. "I just wanted to relax today and not to surround myself in a negative atmosphere for too long."
Since the 2019 protests, authorities have used a sweeping national security law to arrest scores of activists, media figures and democracy supporters. They introduced a more patriotic curriculum in schools and revamped election laws to keep opposition politicians who are deemed not patriotic enough out of the city's legislature.
In its view, China's Communist Party has restored stability to a city wracked with demonstrations seen as a direct challenge to its rule. For Western democracies, Xi has undermined the freedoms and way of life that had distinguished the city from mainland China and made it a global finance and trade hub.
Adrienne Watson, spokesperson for the U.S. National Security Council, said in a statement that China's policies toward Hong Kong, including the national security law, have "shaken the institutions, rules and systems that had been the basis of international confidence in Hong Kong."
Steady erosion of rights, says U.K. minister
British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said: "We have seen a steady erosion of political and civil rights since the imposition of the National Security Law on June 30, 2020. Authorities have stifled opposition, criminalized dissent and driven out anyone who can speak truth to power."
Xi warned there would be no tolerance for foreign interference or traitors meddling in Hong Kong's affairs. He said "safeguarding national sovereignty, security and development interests" is of the highest priority.
"Nobody in any country or region in the world will allow foreign countries or even traitorous forces and figures to seize power," he said, adding that only by having patriots governing Hong Kong can it ensure long-term stability.
He said one country, two systems was still good and "must be maintained for a long time."
Xi also stressed the importance of caring for the youth of Hong Kong. Protests in pro-democracy movements in 2014 and 2019 included students disillusioned by the loss of promised political freedoms and an increasingly competitive job market and rising housing costs.
"It is necessary to help the majority of young people solve the difficulties they face in their studies, employment, and in entrepreneurship and property ownership," China's leader said. "There must be more opportunities created for them to grow and become talents."
Xi's trip to Hong Kong was his first outside mainland China since the COVID-19 pandemic took hold in January 2020. He had last visited Hong Kong in 2017 for the 20th anniversary of the handover.
Premier John Horgan has issued the following statement to recognize Canada Day:
“After one of the most challenging periods in our history, many people are coming together again to celebrate Canada Day at community events and backyard barbecues across the country.
“As we do, it is important we reflect on this place we call home – its past and its future – to recognize all we have to be grateful for and all we must do together to build a better Canada that works for everyone.
“We are fortunate to live in one of the most welcoming countries on the planet. People from all over the world come to Canada in search of a better life for themselves and their families. But there is a lot more we need to do to break down barriers and end systemic discrimination that is a lived reality for many. Central to that work is confronting the dark truths of our colonial history so that we can move forward through reconciliation and partnership with Indigenous Peoples, many of whom have been on this land since time immemorial.
“At our best, Canada is a place where we take care of our neighbours, no matter who they are or how much money they have in their pocket. There is no greater expression of this than our universal public health-care system, which provides Canadians with the life-saving care they need without having to take out a credit card. A global pandemic has exposed underlying gaps and added additional strains. To ensure that strong public health care is there for future generations will require a renewed partnership between governments.
“As Canadians, we enjoy a vast landscape of natural beauty and resources, from mountains ranges and beautiful coastlines, to rich farmland and abundant forests. While a rapidly changing climate is putting these things we cherish most at risk, if we act now with the urgency required, we can reduce the most severe effects and become a global leader in the emerging clean energy economy.
“This is the country we celebrate today, a place that is special, not because we are perfect, but because we are always striving to make progress and life better for people.
“Over the past few years, we have shown how much we can accomplish if we reject division and work together in common purpose. That’s why I have never been more optimistic about our future than I am right now. Together, I know we will continue to build a stronger and more inclusive Canada – where everyone feels like they belong and no one gets left behind.”
Order will bring federal government’s rapidly available supply to more than 4 million vaccines
The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) today ordered an additional 2.5 million doses of Bavarian Nordic's JYNNEOS, an FDA-licensed vaccine indicated for prevention of smallpox and monkeypox, for use in responding to current or future monkeypox outbreaks and as part of U.S. smallpox preparedness. Deliveries from this latest order will begin arriving at the Strategic National Stockpile (SNS) later this year and will continue through early 2023.
The additional supply of vaccines is part of the Biden-Harris Administration's broader strategy to combat the monkeypox virus and protect those most at risk, including by accelerating the production and distribution of vaccines, making testing more accessible and convenient, and communicating regularly with health and community leaders about the virus.
"We are working around-the-clock with public health officials in states and large metro areas to provide them with vaccines and treatments to respond to the current monkeypox outbreak," said HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra. "This order of additional JYNNEOS vaccine will help us push out more vaccine quickly, knowing that we have more doses on the way in the coming months – and is only possible because of our longstanding investment in smallpox and monkeypox preparedness."
The order announced today is in addition to the 500,000 doses of government-owned vaccine the company is producing in 2022 for use in the current response to monkeypox in the U.S and brings the total vaccine doses to be delivered in 2022 and 2023 to more than 4 million. The company will produce these doses in liquid frozen form using vaccine already manufactured in bulk under an existing 10-year contract with the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA), within the HHS Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response (ASPR); that contract was part of ongoing national preparedness efforts against smallpox.
"The medical countermeasures available to help respond to the current outbreak are the result of years of investment and planning made possible through the ongoing work between HHS and private industry," said Gary Disbrow, director of the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority. "We are pleased that we have been able to work with our partners at Bavarian Nordic to accelerate delivery of vaccines that can help keep people safe and stem the spread of the virus."
BARDA supported the development of JYNNEOS, which is approved by the FDA to prevent smallpox and monkeypox. The U.S. government owns enough smallpox vaccine – JYNNEOS and ACAM2000 – to vaccinate millions of Americans, if needed.
As of June 24, ASPR's SNS held approximately 65,000 doses of JYNNEOS in immediate inventory with delivery of an additional 300,000 doses in the coming days. On June 28, HHS announced that it would immediately make available 56,000 doses and soon after would make available 240,000 additional doses. The SNS also has more than 100 million doses of ACAM2000 which was developed with SNS support and is approved by FDA for use in preventing smallpox. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) currently has an expanded access Investigational New Drug protocol which allows use of ACAM2000 for monkeypox.
In addition, the SNS has over 1.7 million treatment courses of the smallpox antiviral drug TPOXX, which was developed with BARDA support and can be used to treat individuals with monkeypox under an appropriate regulatory mechanism. CDC currently has an expanded access Investigational New Drug protocol which allows its use for monkeypox.
As of June 29, the CDC has received reports of approximately 350 cases of monkeypox in the U.S., primarily among men who have sex with men. To learn more about monkeypox, visit cdc.gov/monkeypox.
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