Good thing this isn’t the first rodeo for Ron Francis.
Otherwise, he might be fooled into believing he’s being handed a menu of spectacular choices to populate the first roster of the expansion Seattle Kraken.
But Francis, who played more than 1,700 NHL regular-season games with four clubs and managed the Carolina Hurricanes for four years, has seen a thing or two in his time, both good and bad, before the NHL instituted a salary cap and after.
He understands that while some well-known hockey players were left available when 30 NHL teams submitted their protected lists on Sunday (Vegas is exempt), all of those players come with warts and flaws. They are on their downside, or have never realized their upside. Many are the proud owners of contracts they no longer deserve.
Finally, Francis knows that while the Golden Knights were able to go from zero to Stanley Cup finalists in a year, armed with many players acquired directly or indirectly through the expansion draft process, that was in many ways a spectacular fluke unlikely to be repeated by the Kraken no matter how clever Seattle’s front office turns out to be.
His job isn’t to take Seattle to the 2022 Cup final. It’s to build a sustainable winner that will help Seattle’s ownership group attract customers and make the expenditure of $650 million (U.S.) during a pandemic turn out to be a good investment.
Here’s betting Francis won’t copy George McPhee and Kelly McCrimmon and after four years have very little in the cupboard in terms of high-end prospects. Seattle will pick second overall in this month’s draft of eligible 18-year-olds, and that player may well play in the NHL this season. The Kraken also have the 35th pick.
Next year, it’s already believed that Shane Wright of the Kingston Frontenacs will be the first pick overall. He’d probably go first this year if he was eligible. Seattle should do everything possible to position itself to get him. Getting the best players out of Wednesday’s NHL expansion draft and making the playoffs right away won’t help the Kraken realize that objective.
For now, Francis needs to avoid the usual expansion draft landmines. If he tries to match the immediate success of the Golden Knights, he will fail. If he takes the Kraken on a different path in a very different market, one that knows hockey and has popular franchises in Major League Baseball and the NFL, he’ll have a much better chance to succeed.
In a perfect Kraken world, at this time next year Francis will have the No. 2 pick from this year’s draft, the opportunity to draft Wright, some memorable moments from the first season of building a rivalry with the Vancouver Canucks, and perhaps eight players left from the expansion draft, none with particularly problematic contracts. That would represent success.
/https://www.thestar.com/content/dam/thestar/sports/hockey/opinion/2021/07/18/for-the-seattle-kraken-the-more-important-draft-might-be-next-year/shane_wright_frontenacs.jpg)
So, who might be helpful to get on Wednesday?
Max Domi, with only one year left on his contract, looks like a perfect one-year Kraken crowd pleaser. Same for P.K. Subban, who also has one year left on his deal. If you want to sell the NHL in Seattle, Subban can certainly help.
If Francis is looking to develop a winning atmosphere, two years of Alex Killorn at $4.25 million seems sensible. Former first-round picks Jake Bean, Jonathan Drouin, Haydn Fleury, Nick Ritchie, Evgeny Svechnikov and Adam Larsson might still have upside. Vladimir Tarasenko, after three shoulder operations, looks like dead weight at $7.5 million for the next two seasons. Vince Dunn might be a better pick from the Blues.
Which brings us to Carey Price.
On one hand, having the 33-year-old Price in Seattle might be the equivalent of having 36-year-old Glenn Hall land in St. Louis 55 years ago. On the other hand, Hall didn’t have five years left on his contract at $10.5 million per season. That said, in a salary-cap world, there is a limit ($81.5 million) and there is also a floor ($60.2 million). In other words, the Kraken must spend at least $60 million on players, and Price would be an easy way to spend a big chunk of that.
He’s got mileage left on him. He proved that in three rounds against the Leafs, Jets and Knights. He’s also a valuable asset, albeit not as valuable as he would be without $52.5 million and a no-movement clause attached. Price is also an athlete who would give Seattle immediate credibility in the market, just like Marc-André Fleury did in Vegas.
Price is probably the toughest choice for Francis. A much safer path, clearly, would be to grab Brett Kulak and let the Habs deal with the Price albatross contract. Otherwise, the Seattle GM knows 80 per cent of the players left unprotected are not players he really wants, and that he’s probably going to get stuck with one or two he would prefer not to employ at all.
The reality is that the existing teams are still able to protect all the players they view as irreplaceable, elite or good investments. As we saw with Colorado and Ryan Graves, teams still have ways to get value for assets they don’t want to lose for nothing. Seattle then gets its pick of the rest.
Some things never change. Francis has been around long enough to know that.
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For the Seattle Kraken, the more important draft might be next year - Toronto Star
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