"I think making the plan more rooted in the science and the epidemiological trajectory of the virus would have been much smarter," says epidemiologist Prativa Baral.
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No one is surprised Montrealers flocked to parks, terrasses and other public areas during the weekend as Quebec lifted various COVID-19 restrictions, but some think a more strategic reopening plan could have influenced their behaviour.
“In Quebec, the government’s been very hell-bent on defining the reopening process based on dates rather than the actual situation within the pandemic,” said Simon Bacon, a professor of behavioural medicine at Concordia University. “What this does is it sort of totally negates the requirement of people to engage in the process. It’s saying no matter what’s going on, this is the date where it’s going to happen, so it doesn’t matter what the situation is, it’s going to happen anyway.”
The de-confinement plan Quebec unveiled a few weeks ago includes dates when several measures will be removed provincewide, and others when most regions will move down a level on its colour-coded regional alert system. It’s unclear why the plan doesn’t solely rely on that system, which was initially tied to various factors like the epidemiological situation and state of health-care institutions in each region.
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Bacon said that adds to the confusion Quebecers have been feeling throughout the pandemic, with mixed messaging behind public health guidelines, like being able to gather in parks but not in private yards.
“At one point it was OK to have 250 people in a church, but you couldn’t have your brother, his wife, kids over for dinner,” he said. “And so all those inconsistencies really undermined the process, or undermined people’s confidence in the process.”
The first phase of Quebec’s reopening plan saw the removal of the curfew, permitted restaurant terrasses to reopen, small private outdoor gatherings to take place and stadiums to welcome up to 2,500 guests across the province, regardless of a region’s status.
In other places in Canada and around the world, reopening plans have been tied to vaccine rates.
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“I think making the plan more rooted in the science and the epidemiological trajectory of the virus would have been much smarter,” said Prativa Baral, an epidemiologist and a PhD student at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. “There were a lot of dates that were thrown out, and dates that would be where regions would turn from red to orange, from orange to green. … I think what would have been smarter or more strategic would have been to say ‘OK, when 75 per cent of our population is vaccinated with one dose, this is the plan, when 20 per cent of our population has received the second dose, this is the plan.’ ”
Baral and Bacon both said it’s completely normal for Quebecers to want to take advantage of the lifting of restrictions, but more transmissible COVID-19 variants still pose a major threat when most of the population has only received one dose of the vaccine. Premier François Legault acknowledged this on Tuesday, in reference to the weekend gatherings.
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“There’s a risk even outside to get the virus from somebody else, so you need to protect yourself,” Legault said. “We have to be careful, but at the same time I can understand after months of being inside, people want to meet with other people, and I prefer they meet outside than inside.”
Baral said she also appreciates that people have been opting for outdoor gatherings.
“That being said, just because you’re outdoors, it doesn’t necessarily mean that your risk is zero of contracting COVID,” she said. “So if you are hugging people, if you’re not distancing and not wearing a mask, and you happen to be near someone who has COVID, then the risk is still there.”
During the weekend, a special Montreal police force was deployed throughout the city for the lifting of the measures. Officers are still handing out tickets to those who flout the rules.
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“The police from neighbourhood stations and from the force had to intervene in several sectors where many people had gathered, notably in parks and in Old Montreal,” the police department said Tuesday.
Bacon said the majority of Quebecers are still following public health guidelines, though it may be difficult to tell. For those who aren’t, he suspects the lack of clarity around lockdowns and reopenings could be the culprit.
“I imagine a lot of people right now are kind of like ‘well, I better get it in now, I better enjoy it now, because who knows what the government will do tomorrow?’ ”
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Quebec should have had a more strategic reopening plan, experts say - Montreal Gazette
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