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The Edmonton Oilers have no remaining margin for error.
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They must win a hockey game tonight, or their season is over.
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Some of the critical decisions facing the club’s coaching staff are just ahead, in this edition of…
9 Things
9. Connor McDavid has been nominated for the Hart Trophy, along with Florida’s Matthew Tkachuk and Boston’s David Pastrnak. All 3 are worthy candidates. But I would argue that of the 3 only McDavid had an historic season.
8. Sunday’s game is an 8pm puck drop. It is the only NHL game on the schedule. It makes no difference to me out here on the West Coast. But pray tell how does starting your only product of the day at 10pm Eastern grow the game?
7. Whether the Oilers advance or not, a tremendous amount of priceless knowledge and rich experience is being sopped up by some of Edmonton’s best young players: Vincent Desharnais. Philip Broberg. Stuart Skinner. Just think how much better off they will be a year from now. Although I still do not fully understand why Dylan Holloway was not given a comparable opportunity.
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6. The Oilers did not come out with the same aggressive in Game 5 as they had in Game 4. Yes, they appeared to have a relatively firm grip on the game until the 30-minute mark. But I felt a tentativeness on Edmonton’s part from the get-go left the door for Vegas just a crack. And when the 5-on-3 happened, the barn doors burst open. Make sure you are playing to win instead of trying not to lose.
5. The long-distance Steve Kozari call on young Philip Broberg in Game 5 was flat out embarrassing. Few things make me more nuts than a referee who thinks he is the show. Kozari not only got the call wrong, but he also showed up his Chris Lee partner in the process. The other ref had a perfectly fine, unobstructed view of the play. There was a reason he had not raised his arm. Instead, Kozari’s decision helped turn the tide.
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4. But let me add to the above this: Credit to Jack Eichel for keeping his feet moving on that play which helped draw the call. All teams will have to deal with bad calls over time. However, there is such a thing as making your own good fortune. Eichel created his. I believe that same approach will be a key to Oilers success in Game 6. Edmonton is a fast club. Play fast. That will give you the best chance get on the Power Play…which is where this club thrives.
3. Jack Eichel is indeed having a very fine series. And he leads the Golden Knights in playoff scoring. Neutralizing him will be among the keys to the Oilers winning Game 6. I think the most effective way to do so will be with speed. I would run Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Ryan McLeod down the middle on separate lines, 5v5. Nick Bjugstad does make this team better. He is an excellent faceoff and PK man. But Bjugstad is not as fleet of foot as the other 3 men.
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2. The Edmonton Oilers must have a sense of deja vu. The opposition in this series is different. But the situation they face on Sunday is remarkably similar to the one the Oilers found themselves in during the opening round of the 2021-22 Stanley Cup Playoffs: Against the Los Angeles Kings, Edmonton was down 3-2, playing a Game 6 at home in an effort to stave off elimination and force a Game 7. The majority of this roster has “been here before”. Experience counts.
1.Jay Woodcroft has a number of decisions to make before Game 6. Darnell Nurse back into the lineup is the easiest. None are more difficult than who he starts in goal. I honestly do not think there is a bad choice. But if it were my call and mine alone, I would choose Stuart Skinner over Jack Campbell (who has played well in relief). Even in his pulls, Skinner has not been bad. And he is the guy who got you through the regular season and to this point in the playoffs. And remember, Jay Woodcroft, Dave Manson and Dustin Schwartz have a long history with the rookie. As the old saying goes, “Dance with the one that brought you”.
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A lot of people will suggest that the other big decision is whether to go 11&7 or 12&6. And while I agree there are important tactical advantages that go along with that, one of Woodcroft’s more complicated decisions is one that comes with the simplest answer: Use your bench more. There was a statistical change in the Oilers game plan Friday. It may well have been dictated more by game effects that intent, but I do believe it cost them…
One of the reasons Edmonton could not find the equalizer on Friday was because their big guns were gassed. Check the game sheet. The Oilers played 5 players under 10 minutes (3 of them under 6) and 5 guys over 23 minutes. Vegas played 3 skaters under 10:00 and exactly one over 23:00. That is a meaningful gap.
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Remember the 1990 Oilers “kid” line of Martin Gelinas, Adam Graves, and Joe Murphy? They were one key to that unexpected Stanley Cup win, along with the inspired play of Mark Messier and Bill Ranford. The Kid Line’s rise to legend status was partly born out of a 3-1 deficit to the Jets in Round 1.
So the story goes, this is when Messier is said to have had a heated conversation with John Muckler that they “needed more help”. What is not up for debate is that those Oilers expanded their bench over the course of that series (which they battled back to win) and for the rest of run to Stanley.
Today’s Edmonton Oilers have the best players in the series. I still firmly believe that they can come back to win it. But much like the 1990 edition of the Oilers, they too “need more help” in order to pull it off.
Find me on Twitter @KurtLeavins, on Instagram at LeavinsOnHockey, and now on Mastodon at KurtLeavins@mstdn.social
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